Friday, June 9, 2017

A Peek Behind the CFR Organized Play Curtain: Race and Series Data

Michael P asked:
Is it possible to also publish a list of the ranked races along with field strength for each? 
Sure thing Mike!

Why is this data important?  

Every race and series is graded based on what I call an adjusted field rating (AFR).  This number indicates how good the competition in the event is and adjusts scores accordingly.

So the winner of a race with an AFR of 1 gets 23 points for that effort.  While the winner of a race with an AFR of 2 would get 46 points.  I simply multiply the AFR for a race and the points a driver earned in that race to get their adjusted points for that race.  These adjusted points are what you see in the rankings.

I do the exact same thing for any tournaments or online seasons or series.  If Michael wins a tournament with an AFR of 1.5 he gets 34.5 points for that.  If I win a PBeM season with an AFR of 0.5 I get 11.5 points.

As you can see, AFR is very important for rankings.

What do all these fields mean?  

Below I explain what each field is calculating and how it impacts the rankings.

Race and Series names.  No there is no real convention to these names.

Drivers. This is the number of drivers who participated in a race or event.  Mostly just for informational purposes.

The number of drivers does not have a direct bearing on AFR or rankings but races and events with more drivers tend to have higher AFRs because AFR is effectively a counting stat.  In other words, I mostly add stuff together to get an AFR.  I don't average things.  My logic being that a race with 12 drivers is harder than one with 6.  Same goes for events.

Field Rating. This is the sum of each drivers' best four races over the last 2 CFR OP seasons.  In order to not end up in a formula loop, a drivers' best four races is scored by the un-adjusted points scored in those races.  I use the last 2 seasons in order to provide more data about each driver and get a better sense of their skill level.

This field rating is the raw data used to calculate AFR.

Adj Field Rating. Here's AFR.  What I do to get from a raw field rating to AFR is to find the median Field Rating for all races (or all series) over the last 2 CFR OP seasons divide the raw Field Rating by that median.  So, AFR is effectively a measure of that race or series Field Rating as compared to the median over the last 2 seasons.  An AFR over 1 indicates that it was more difficult than usual while an AFR below 1 indicates the opposite.

Odd Rules. This is a toggle I use rarely when a race or series has some seriously odd rules to it.  Not so odd that I do not use it at all, but odd enough that I want to devalue it for rankings.  The only current event marked odd is the Redscape Race of Champions.

If a race or series is marked as odd, all points gained from that race or series are halved.  This is done after the AFR is calculated.

Year. This really means season.  I have this field for both data sets but hide it for races.  I am only showing races from the 2017 season in the above PDF.  I show it for series because I show series from past seasons there just for fun.

Note that no one can get championship points from past events even though those events (and races) can have AFRs.

Pts Adjustment.  This is where I calculate the adjustments to points due from either odd rules or the race/series being from a past season.  A points adjustment of 1 is normal and means no adjustment is made.  A points adjustment of 0 means that there will be no points from this thing.

Track.  For races, I try to keep track of which track was used.  I don't really do anything with this yet and it does not impact standings.

Laps.  For races, I try to keep track of how many laps are run.  I don't really do anything with this yet and it does not impact standings.

Steward.  I like to keep track of who volunteers their time and hard work to run events.  But again, I don't do anything with this yet and it does not impact standings.

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