Solo Race #10: Season Finale at Mogyrod

Below is my new-fangled stitching together of video commentary and stills from every turn.



If you want to step through each turn in the race at your pace including the video commentary, see the Google Album.

Links to the rest of the series can be found on the series page.

Solo Race #9: Nurburg

I tried something a little new for this race.  I took photos but also recorded short videos periodically through the race... here is the result all stitched together into 18 minutes of video!


If you want to step through each turn in the race at your pace including the video commentary, see the Google Album.

Links to the rest of the series can be found on the series page.

Solo Race #8, 3 Laps at Sao Paulo

Three races left in my 2017 solo series.  I cling to a small lead over Jackie Stewart as we head to Sao Paulo, Brazil for a 3-lap race.

I think I can accelerate slowly and still get to my top speed and I think the higher deceleration will come in handy a couple places on the track.  I want lots of wear here and hope to make a move from a mid-field start.

I bid 4 for the pole and ended up tied with two other drivers, lost the tie breaker die rolls, and ended up 6th.  Mansell was one of the two cars I tied with and he got huge value bidding 4 for 4th on the grid.

Fangio just beat Vettel for pole by a skill chip.  Stewart ended up 7th.

Lap 1

Alonso (yellow) rolls a forced pass and ends up 3rd off the start.

Alonso gets past me on the start.  Although he had to roll a forced pass to do it.  That move got him up to 3rd.

Stewart and Fittipaldi pass me exiting the Senna S with their better accelerations.  I'm down to 9th already -- an early drop in position that has become pretty typical for me this season.

As the cars begin lap 2, Fangio has built up a big lead.  Alonso is third again -- having given the position up to Rindt earlier, then taking it back on the big front straight.  Mansell is 5th.  I'm 9th.

Lap 2

I start making a move in the middle of lap 2.  Here I spend 3 wear to pass Fittipaldi.  Later I'll spend more wear so that I can get out onto the front straight with everyone else.

Me (in blue) passing Fittipaldi to move out of 9th.

Lap 3

As I cross the line to start lap 3, I pass Rindt and Hunt under braking and get inside Mansell -- all the way into 5th.

Me moving into 5th after the long straight to start lap 3.

 I was able to stay in front of Mansell exiting the Senna S and tucked in behind Stewart.  This is the real battle -- can I get past Stewart?  Meanwhile, Fangio broke his top speed and is out of the race, leaving Vettel to try to hold off a hard charging Alonso.

On the right, I take the slip from Stewart and dive inside for 2 wear for the pass.  You can also see Alonso has caught up to Vettel.

Huge move for me that I hope I can make stick and which will extend my championship lead a bit.

But Stewart fights back.  Below he spends 3 wear to pass me.  In addition Raikkonen has fought his way up from the back to challenge for a podium as well.  You can also see that Alonso got past Vettel a couple turns ago.

Stewart (orange) pass me.

But the very next turn both Vettel and Stewart chance Bico De Pato in efforts to challenge Alonso for the win.  Both spin.

Vettel (red) and Stewart (orange) spin in front of me and Raikkonen.

I got through Bico De Pato even with Stewart who then spun the next turn chancing the last corner of the race.

In the drag race down the front straight, I lucked out that Raikkonan broke his top speed and so I was able to hold on to second and keep Stewart behind me.

Alonso long ago finished for the win as I hold off Mansell, Raikkonan,
and Stewart for 2nd.

Wrap Up

The second place was my 4th podium of the season and was extra nice because Stewart (5th), Fangio, (dnf) and Vettel (dnf) did not have good races as my top competition for the championship.

Alonso's win was his best result.  Mansell's 3rd was his 3rd podium in the last 4 races.

Next up will be Nurburg for a quick 2-lapper before the final race at Mogyorod.

If you want to see this race turn-by-turn, see the google album.  If you missed a race, check out the series summery.

Even Historical Driver Strategies for Championship Formula Racing

Back in June I talked about the three basic Historical Driver strategies for Championship Formula Racing: Front A, Even, and Back S.  A couple weeks ago we discussed variations on the Front strategy.  This time out, lets compare the three Even-ish Strategies and see how they riff on the theme of spending resources evenly.

My intent with the Mathy strategy was to have a car that took advantage of starred moves as much as possible.  The idea behind the Stalking strategy was to stay within striking distance for a move a little later in the race.

Same note as last time that these are not exactly the same as the versions of these strategies published in the game.  Reasons and links at the bottom of the article.

Now lets look at each Phase by Phase.  Same analysis process as last time... basically I'm measuring how much faster this strategy wants to go than a safe 0-wear plot.  More words at the bottom.

Phase 1

Not Starred:
Mathy: net +0 mph (100% +0)
Even: net +6 mph (72.2% +0, 27.8% +20)
Stalking: net +24 mph (11% +0, 58.4% +20, 30.6% +40)

Starred:
Mathy: net +37 mph (44.5% +20, 27.8% +40, 27.8% +60)
Even: net +28 mph (58.4% +20, 41.7% +40)
Stalking: net +34 mph (30.6% +20, 69.5% +60)

In the first phase we can also look to see how likely the car is to push it's start speed:
Mathy: 56%
Even: 33%
Stalking: 72%

Starred vs. non-starred is going to be a real theme for this group of strategies.  You can see here that only Stalking is willing to spend some wear into the first corner unless it is an efficient play.

Phase 2: 

 All three of these strategies include conditionals if they have more wear than c.  So lets look at both parts of that equation separately.

For most races and drivers their wear will be lower than c initially but if no wear gets spent in the first couple of corners that can change on shorter tracks.

W < C
Not Starred:
Mathy: net +0 mph (100% +0)
Even: net +6 mph (72.2% +0, 27.8% +20)
Stalking: net +8 mph (58.3% +0, 41.7% +20)

Starred:
Mathy: net +43 mph (41.7% +20, 58.4% +60)
Even: net +14 mph (27.7% +0, 72.3% +20)
Stalking: net +28 mph (58.4% +20, 41.7% +40)

W >= C
Not Starred:
Mathy: net +12 mph (41.6% +0, 58.4% +20)
Even: net +20 mph (27.7% +0, 44.5% +20, 27.8% +40)
Stalking: net +25 mph (16.6% +0, 41.7% +20, 41.7% +40)

Starred:
Mathy: net +43 mph (41.7% +20, 58.4% +60)
Even: net +31 mph (44.5% +20, 55.6% +40)
Stalking: net +28 mph (58.4% +20, 41.7% +40)

So mostly, none of these strategies want to spend much in this phase... But Even will spend if it has w >= c; Stalking will spend more than Even if the move is starred or they have w >= c; and Mathy will spend more than either if its a starred move.

Phase 3

Not Starred:
Mathy: net +0 mph (100% +0)
Even: net +34 mph (27.8% +20, 72.3% +40)
Stalking: net +0 mph (100% +0)
Stalking (w >= 2c): net +8 mph (58.3% +0, 41.7% +20)

Starred:
Mathy: net +37 mph (58.4% +20, 41.7% +60)
Even: net +34 mph (30.6% +20, 69.5% +40)
Stalking: net +20 mph (100% +20)

After last phase's variables, Phase 3 sees the Mathy and Stalking strategies revert to being mostly concerned with stars.  Even picks this middle phase of the race to be consistently prepared to spend some wear.

Phase 4

As usual, phase 4 has a lot of conditionals and cars will generally spend based on how much wear they have left at this point.  But one thing to note is that all three strategies can transition to this phase differently.

Mathy can get pushed here if they did not spend much wear earlier in the race and eventually gain w >= 2c.  Phase 4 for Mathy is much more willing to spend wear without there being a star than it's previous phases.

Even will only move to this phase if the car has entered the last 3rd of the race -- which is unusual.  And phase 4 for Even is very clearly defined by the wear remaining on the car -- have little wear: spend 1; have lots spend 2; in between spend 1 or 2.

Stalking has a more common transition to Phase 4 that includes moving here if w <= laps *2.  Which is really just a way to get them to Phase 5 quicker because Phase 4 for Stalking is actually its fastest phase.

Strategy Trends

Over the course of a race, HDs will spend most of their time in phases 2-4.  So let's quick see each strategy's progression over time:

(Not Starred/Starred) phase 2 >> phase 3 >> phase 4
Mathy net +0/43 >> +0/37 >> +5/48
Even net +6/14 >> +34/34 >> +20/20
Stalking net +8/28 >> +0/20 >> +23/42

I had to provide two numbers for each phase for these strategies because so much changes with stars.

Mathy basically only spends wear if there is a star for the whole race.

Even doesn't actually care much about stars and spends more middle and late than early.  Although that can vary if Even has a lot of wear left early in the race.

Stalking does care about stars but also defaults to spending wear late if it has it.

Next up I'll discuss the variations on the Back strategies.  Remember, links to the above 3 strategies below.

What is the Analysis Here?
The main way to measure a phase's intent is to look at the first starred and non-stared symbols in each tactic.  This gives you a sense of how much faster the car will likely try to go.  Think about it this way -- a car that wants to spend 1 wear in the upcoming corner will try to go 20 mph faster than a car that does not want to spend any wear, all other factors being equal.

If you then multiply each of those possible results by the odds of them being first choice, I get a net result of how much faster this car wants to go.  It might not be able to go that fast, but that's on the driver not the strategy.  I'm going to call this "net" in tables below.

Note that anything with 3 circles of any kind, should be considered starred because that is how the tracks are designed.  Also note, that if a tactic does not lead with a starred option, I'll count the first un-starred option for that tactics starred value since its more likely to be used.

How Are the Strategies Different?
Three minor editorial choices I've made since publication: 1) HDs can push start using only 1 green skill (the start speed test table changed a bit right before publication...); 2) I decided that the red skill chip could be used more places in relation to HD die rolls; 3) there were a few tactics that had 6 symbols on them and my BYO tool only allows for 5...  Links to these version in my BYO tool are at the end of this article.

Stalking (version 1.1)
Even (version 1.1)
Mathy (version 1.1)

Solo Race #7, 2 Laps at Silverstone

My 10 car field of historical drivers and I took the short ride over from Belgium to England in preparation for race 7 out of 10 in my 2017 solo championship.

I'm excited to be leading the series if only by a point after I drove through the carnage at Francorchamps for my 2nd win.

My plan at Silverstone is to ignore the desire for a high top speed.  I want to bid low, start fast with my 100 start speed, then use my 60-60 car to save some wear for when I really need it.  I'm hoping that the 140 top speed doesn't bit me.  I will be wrong.

Lap 1

Below are the results after the pole bid.  Fangio and Vettl bid the most again.  Fangio got pole after a tie-breaker roll.  Kimi Räikkönen is actually inside of me in the 4th row -- much higher than he normally starts.  Stewart's orange car sits outside row 2.

The First turn was important to me.  I wanted to pass some people here.  Below you can see that I did pass Hunt (white car) and Mansell (black car) but Alonso did his usual and ended up inside me.  Partly that's because I chose to end up behind Rindt for a possible slip next turn.

So, I only gain 1 spot on turn 1.

A couple sectors later and we are half-way through lap 1 and I've fallen back two more spots.  First Hunt dove inside me while I was on the line in front of Becketts.  Hunt spends more wear than I to stay inside through the corner then uses his better top speed to pull ahead.

Then at the end of the Hanger straight, Mansell spends more wear in the corner and ends up inside me after I got the slip to stay even.  Not much changes as lap 1 turns into lap 2.

Vettel leads in the white-trimmed Ferrari but he had only 2 wear left at the half-way mark.
Fangio sits second and looks good with 8 wear.  Stewart has 4 wear in 3rd but broke his top speed trying to go 180 through Copse the turn before the image above.  Rindt has 3 wear in 4th.

Alonso sits in 5th -- half-way between the lead pacl and the rest of us -- with 7 wear.

Mansell leads the rest of us and has 12 wear left.  Hunt has 7.  I have 11.  Fittipaldi has 5 wear.

Raikkonan is way back there but has 14 left still.

Lap 2

This is the crucial turn.  We start with the groups pretty much as they were above to start lap 2.  Alonso has fallen back to the pack.  Raikkonan went 200 last turn to close up some.

In the picture above, note a couple crucial details: 1) Fangio is right behind Vettel, 2) I'm no in a slip position.  In the picture below, there were two big things happening.

Most importantly for the race, this is where Fangio makes his move.  He pushes his top with dice, makes it, spends 2 wear in the corner, and passes Vettel cleanly.  As we'll see later, this is the end of the race.

Most importantly for me, I went from 3 spaces behind Alonso to 5.  Alonso pushes to 180, Mansell got two slips, Hunt also pushed to 180, I only went my 140 top.  Thankfully, Fittipaldi broke his top speed trying to pass me or this would have been even worse.

Below we have two forced passes.  First (on the left), Alonso goes 180 and squeezes past Rindt into 2nd.

 

Two turns later (on the right), I pass Stewart into 6th.  Raikkonen broke his brakes trying to slow for Abbey and is the first retirement on the day.

The next turn is below.  Fangio waves to his pit crew.  Alonso enters Luffield, but not quickly.  Vettel takes a chance and crashes.

A turn later, Mansell is next to Alonso having run through Luffield faster.  Rindt it right on his tail and I'm behind Rindt.

The end result of this is that Mansell was able to pass Alonso for a second place.  Rindt was also able to get slips to pull into 3rd.  Alonso ended up 4th and I was unable to improve on 5th.

I built another Google Photo Album for this race.  Every turn is recorded there.  I made some notes as well.  My advice is to click on the first image, click on the circled i symbol to reveal my notes, then page through that way.

Wrap-Up

I stayed ahead of Stewart in the season rankings who finished 6th.

And a big win for Fangio -- his 3rd this year -- to put him right back in the conversation for the title with 3 races left.

A disappointing result for Vettel who retired from his second race in a row to really fall behind the 3 season leaders.  Also disappointing for Alonso who dropped from 2nd to 4th across the finish line.

On the other hand, this was the best results on the season for both Nigel Mansell and Jochen Rindt who finished 2nd and 3rd.

Raikkonen's first DNF of the season means that there are now only 3 drivers who have finished every race: Me, Stewart, and (ironically) James Hunt.

Front Style Historical Strategies for CFR

Back in June I talked about the three basic Historical Driver strategies for Championship Formula Racing: Front A, Even, and Back S.  This time out, lets compare the three Front Strategies to each other and see how they riff on the theme of spending resources early.

My intent with the Front B strategy was to have a car that, while it was going to start out fast, was going to really go all out starting in the middle third of the race.  The Front X strategy was an attempt to push even harder in the first third of the race than the Front A and then back off assuming there was little wear left.

Same note as last time that these are not exactly the same as the versions of these strategies published in the game.  Reasons and links at the bottom of the article.

Now lets look at each Phase by Phase.  Same analysis process as last time... basically I'm measuring how much faster this strategy wants to go than a safe 0-wear plot.  More words at the bottom.

Phase 1

Not Starred:
Front A: net +29 mph (52.9% +20, 47.2% +40)
Front B: net +22 mph (91.7% +20, 8.4% +40)
Front X: net +40 mph (100% +40)

Starred:
Front A: net +42 mph (19.4% +20, 52.9% +40, 27.8% +60)
Front B: net +33 mph (41.7% +20, 50% +40, 8.4% +60)
Front X: net +43 mph (41% +20, 58.4% +60)

In the first phase we can also look to see how likely the car is to push it's start speed:
Front A: 92%
Front B: 58%
Front X: 100%

Front X is clearly all in on this first phase of the race.  Also note that Front B gets out of this Phase after the first corner while Front X and Front A stick with it into corner 2.

Phase 2

Not Starred:
Front A: net +38 mph (8.4% +20, 91.7% +40)
Front B: net +26 mph (27.7% +0, 16.7% +20, 55.6% +40)
Front X: net +34 mph (30.6% +20, 69.5% +40)

Starred:
Front A: net +44 mph (8.4% +20, 63.9% +40, 27.8% +60)
Front B: net +23 mph (83.4% +20, 16.7% +40)
Front X: net +48 mph (58.4% +40, 41.7% +60)

Some interesting comparisons here between each strategies Phase 1 and Phase 2.

Front A's net in starred conditions does not change much but the strategy actually gets faster in non-starred situations.  Meanwhile, Front X slows down a little in non-starred situations and gets even faster in starred situations.

Put another way, Front A is now indiscriminately spending wear in this phase.  While Front X will go even faster if its a efficient use but actually will spend less wear if it is not.

Front B generally stays similar in non-starred situations and slows down even in starred situations which makes sense given the theory of this strategy.

Phase 3

Not Starred:
Front A: net +15 mph (58.3% +0, 8.4% +20, 33.3% +40)
Front B: net +32 mph (41.7% +20, 58.4% +40)
Front X (in 1st): net +11 mph (72.2% +0, 27.8% +40)
Front X (not in 1st): net +32 mph (41.7% +20, 58.4% +40)

Starred:
Front A: net +23 mph (91.7% +20, 8.4% +60)
Front B: net +40 mph (16.7% +20, 66.7% +40, 16.7% +60)
Front X (in 1st): net +31 mph (72.3% +20, 27.8% +60)
Front X (not in 1st): net +37 mph (41.7% +20, 30.6% +40, 27.8% +60)

We can see Front A back off here and Front B push to spend more wear.  Front X is very interesting in this middle 3rd of the race.  If the Front X car is winning, it backs off in non-star situations.   If not winning, it will try to spend wear almost as much as Front B.

Another thing to note about all 3 strategies is that their time in this 3rd phase can get cut short if they run low on wear.  Front A moves down to Phase 4 if the car has wear <= to the total number of laps in this race *2.  Front B is a little slower to move to Phase 4: < laps *2.  Front X will stick to Phase 3 longer: <= laps.

Phase 4

As usual, phase 4 has a lot of conditionals and cars will generally spend based on how much wear they have left at this point.  A possible difference for Front A is that it will move down to Phase 5 if the car has wear <= to the total number of laps in this race *2.  This is the same condition that will force the car to move from phase 3 to 4, so you often see a Front A go from 3 to 4 one turn and then 4 to 5 after the very next corner.

Front B has a more standard condition to move to Phase 5 of wear < 2.  Front X only moves to Phase 5 if they have no wear left.

Strategy Trends

Over the course of a race, HDs will spend most of their time in phases 2-4.  So let's quick see each strategy's progression over time:

(Not Starred) phase 2 >> phase 3 >> phase 4
Front A net +38 >> +15 >> +17
Front B net +26 >> +32 >> +17
Front X net +34 >> +11/+32 >> +0

Some caveats... In phase 3 the first number for Front X is when it is winning the race and the 2nd is when it is not.

Front A cars often do not spend much time in phase 4 because Front A HDs often run out of wear early and skip out of phase 4 into phase 5 after a corner or 2.

However, for all of these strategies the numbers above assume the cars' do not have a lot of wear left in Phase 4.  If they have more, they will spend more.

Next up I'll discuss the variations on the Even strategy.  Remember, links to the above 3 strategies below.

What is the Analysis Here?
The main way to measure a phase's intent is to look at the first starred and non-stared symbols in each tactic.  This gives you a sense of how much faster the car will likely try to go.  Think about it this way -- a car that wants to spend 1 wear in the upcoming corner will try to go 20 mph faster than a car that does not want to spend any wear, all other factors being equal.

If you then multiply each of those possible results by the odds of them being first choice, I get a net result of how much faster this car wants to go.  It might not be able to go that fast, but that's on the driver not the strategy.  I'm going to call this "net" in tables below.

Note that anything with 3 circles of any kind, should be considered starred because that is how the tracks are designed.  Also note, that if a tactic does not lead with a starred option, I'll count the first un-starred option for that tactics starred value since its more likely to be used.

How Are the Strategies Different?
Three minor editorial choices I've made since publication: 1) HDs can push start using only 1 green skill (the start speed test table changed a bit right before publication...); 2) I decided that the red skill chip could be used more places in relation to HD die rolls; 3) there were a few tactics that had 6 symbols on them and my BYO tool only allows for 5...  Links to these version in my BYO tool are at the end of this article.

Front A (version 1.1)
Front B (version 1.1)
Front X (version 1.1)

Solo Race #6... Francorchamps

First Corner at Francorchamps -- Vettel and Stewart
lead the field while Raikkonan and I bide our time.

One of my favorite tracks saw a LOT of carnage on the last lap as the long straights took their toll on the field.  Only half of the cars finished!  Which half?

For this race I did a turn-by-turn Google Photo Album as I experiment with every conceivable method of reporting these races.

This is not too different than how I reported Oyama, but its easier for me to do it in Google Photos and also I planned this from the beginning this time.

Also, Google Photos makes it easy to flip through the pics.  If you click on the (i) icon in the top right, my notes will appear (I added notes to most of the slides but not all).

Lost track of the other races in the series?  Check out the page where I link to all the race reports.

Mexico City solo race is complete

Well, its been complete for a while now but the last of the 4 videos documenting this epic is up on YouTube and all 4 are below.

Mexico City is a track that I have clearly just not figured out yet.  Although my inability to get off the start line cleanly and my busted decel certainly hampered this race.

Stewart lost ground to the competition again though as he used up his wear too early again and fell back into the pack. It was a good race for the Ferrari as Fangio and Vettel both have good races.

Part 1:


Part 2:


Part 3:


Part 4:


New rankings after 5 races -- half-way through the series:

Mexico City solo race underway on YouTube

I've posted the first of 4 videos of my solo race at Mexico City.  Keep an eye on the YouTube channel for updates.  I'll blog it again when all the videos are posted -- probably next week some time.

Below is part one, where I try again to push my start speed and yes, I do mis-shift for the 3rd race in a row.

The Basic Historical Strategies for CFR

This is the first in a planned 4-part series looking at the Historical Strategies I built for Championship Formula Racing and what I was thinking.  [ Historical Driver rules, video demo ]

Broadly, I tend to group strategies for CFR along a continuum defined by when in a race wear is spent.  On one end is the Front strategy where wear is mostly spent early in a race.  On the other end is the Back strategy where wear is spent late in a race.

A classic Front strategy would see a driver bid high for pole, start off fast, and spend more wear early.  When you see extreme examples of this, you will often see the driver run through half or more of their total wear through the first third of a race and end up with only a wear or 2 before the last third of the race.  A classic Back strategy would see the driver spend no wear at all for the first third of the race.  Spending most of their wear over the last half of the race.

So lets kick off the series by looking at each phase of three strategies that illustrate this continuum: Front A, Back Standard, and Even.

First a quick acknowledgement that these are not exactly the strategies that were published under these names.  Three minor editorial choices I've made since publication: 1) HDs can push start using only 1 green skill (the start speed test table changed a bit right before publication...); 2) I decided that the red skill chip could be used more places in relation to HD die rolls; 3) there were a few tactics that had 6 symbols on them and my BYO tool only allows for 5...  Links to these version in my BYO tool are at the end of this article.

Phase 1

The main way to measure a phase's intent is to look at the first starred and non-stared symbols in each tactic.  This gives you a sense of how much faster the car will likely try to go.  Think about it this way -- a car that wants to spend 1 wear in the upcoming corner will try to go 20 mph faster than a car that does not want to spend any wear, all other factors being equal.

If you then multiply each of those possible results by the odds of them being first choice, I get a net result of how much faster this car wants to go.  It might not be able to go that fast, but that's on the driver not the strategy.  I'm going to call this "net" in tables below.

Note that anything with 3 circles of any kind, should be considered starred because that is how the tracks are designed.  Also note, that if a tactic does not lead with a starred option, I'll count the first un-starred option for that tactics starred value since its more likely to be used.

Not Starred:
Front A: net +29 mph (52.9% +20, 47.2% +40)
Even: net +5 mph (72.3% +0, 27.8% +20)
Back S: net +0 (100% +0)

Starred:
Front A: net +42 mph (52.9% +40, 27.8% +60, 19.4% +20)
Even: net +28 mph (58.4% +20, 41.7% +40)
Back S: net +5 mph (72.3% +0, 27.8% +20)

In the first phase we can also look to see how likely the car is to push it's start speed:
Front A: 92%
Even: 33%
Back S: 28%

Phase 2:

Front A stays faster here.  Note that Even is much faster in this phase if it has more wear than c.  Otherwise, Back S is actually faster under starred conditions.

Not Starred:
Front A net +38
Even (if w >= c) net +20
Even net +6
Back S net 0

Starred:
Front A net +44
Even (if w >= c) +31
Back S net +20
Even net +14

Phase 3:

Even is now the faster strategy in this middle part of the race:

Not Starred:
Even net +34
Front A net +15
Back S net +11

Starred: 
Even net +34
Front A net +23
Back S net +26

Phase 4:

Lots of conditions here.  But in the end each strategy ends up being as fast as their remaining wear let them.  Without stars, if wear <= c their nets are between 17 and 20.  When wear >= c their nets rise to 20 to 32.  When wear >= 2c their nets are all +40.

But since Front A and Even have been faster earlier in the race, Back S is likely to be faster here with more wear to burn.

Strategy Trends

Over the course of a race, HDs will spend most of their time in phases 2-4.  So let's quick see each strategy's progression over time:

(Not Starred) phase 2 >> phase 3 >> phase 4
Front A net +38 >> +15 >> +17
Even net +6 >> +34 >> +20
Back S net +0 >> +11 >> +20

Some caveats... Front A cars often do not spend much time in phase 4 because Front A HDs often run out of wear early and skip out of phase 4 into phase 5 after a corner or 2.

Even HDs will likely be faster in phase 2 than net +6 because they will frequently have more wear than c and use net +20 options.

Back S' real speed will vary on how much it can save wear in the early race.  Save enough and it will skip into phase 4 early and spend at its higher rates of +32 or +40 for a while.

Hopefully that all made some sense and sounded like real CFR strategies at work.  Next up I'll discuss the variations on the Front A strategy.  Until then, feel free to tinker in the BYO tools with your own strategies.