Wednesday, June 5, 2024

2024 Organized Play Update

 I've finally done some data entry for this season of Organized Play... here are the top 10 with ~2 events to go.  (Full list here.)

The top 3 is a murders row of the winners of the past 5 OP titles.  Don leads currently but he should not feel very comfortable with that lead.

The two remaining events to score are my PBeM serieses and the WBC tournament.  Both are worth big points and Jason has a commanding lead in the top tier of the PBeM.  If he does win that series it will be worth nearly 57 points and would give him just over 91 on the season.  

If we assume Jason wins P1, there will probably still be an opportunity for the top 7 drivers on this list to make up enough points at WBC to end up at the top of the heap.  Assuming a similar turn-out at WBC to last year, the top spot will be worth almost 60 points.  

Of course, WBC will be over before my PBeM so there is also the potential for someone to win WBC and do just enough in their PBeM race to pip Jason (or Don).  Keep an eye on people who could get second in the P1 PBeM series (Jeff Harrington, Gianluca Lari, maybe Tim Mossman, theoretically a couple others) and people who could win or place 2nd in the Divoll and Reilly tier... (Robert Rund, Michael Polcen, Palmiro Matteini, Brent Fitz, and others).  If they win WBC they might have a shot at the title too.

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Final 2023 Organized Play Ranking

 The 7th CFR Organized Play season is over and despite a new ranking system I think the champion is pretty obvious.  Jason Schultz was the only driver to win more than one event this year.  Jason actually won 3 of the 4 events entered.

Jason's big win was the Ikea Cup event -- a large Table Top Simulator tournament.  But four other drivers won comparable events.  The kicker was winning Divoll -- a tier 2 event in my PBeM series.  This was by far the best 2nd event result by any driver.

Rookie of the Year

C Moratto gets the nod here after placing 4th in Redscape C4 in his first ever Organized Play outing.

Most Improved

Will McConchie made a big jump in his 2nd season in Organized Play.  Capping it off by winning the tier-4 Clark series.  This pushed his ranking to 27th, up 87 spots from last year.

Honorable mention to Tim Baker who jumped 42 spots up to 3rd in the rankings.  The biggest increase among drivers who finished in the top 20 this season.

Steward of the Year

Since I'm only really paying attention to events now, I'm going to hand this to Mr. Polcen.  Michael officially is in charge of two different series of events... the 4-race Redscape Ladder PLUS the Table Top Simulator hosted Ikea Cup event.  And I know Michael would acknowledge that he is mostly a proxy for the wonderful stewards that run various races in those series.  

Thanks to all stewards.

Monday, July 24, 2023

New OP Ranking Method

Some of you may know that I've been struggling this season to get caught up with CFR Organized Play rankings.  The two culprits I have identified is that I have been busy and past me constructed a pretty elaborate system for calculating OP rankings.

So I'm simplifying.  A lot.

I used to track every result from every race and calculate a whole series of things to try to judge relative competition.  Now I'm just going to track the results of events and I'm going to use a simpler method to judge competition levels between different events -- more or less just counting the number of participants.  More here.

This makes my work much more manageable.  And so an in-progress 2023 season rankings is here.

Monday, March 27, 2023

WBC 2023 Tracks


I expect someone to get angry here in the finals.

WBC steward Chris Long has picked some tracks for this year's WBC event.

A nice mix of tracks below.  The first group are some real classics -- three of the most raced tracks in F1 history.  Group 2 is a collection of fan favorite modern era tracks.  Then the last grouping includes 2 tracks never used in WBC qualifying before -- Kent which is a new design and Indy which made it's WBC debut as last year's finals track.  

This year's finals is another brand new to WBC track -- Midrand, also known as Kyalami.  

Good luck all.

Q1 Red

Q2 Purple

Q3 Green


Monday, October 17, 2022

CFR 2022 Organized Play Concludes (Finally)


In the end, only 4 points separated the top two drivers this season.  With last year's champion Stephen Peeples just edging out former two-time champ Don Tatum.

The rest of the top 10 was a mix of regulars and break-throughs.  Michael Polcen runs his streak of top 10 finishes to 5 seasons (1 short of Don's 6 seasons).  Chris Long and Tim Mossman have had multiple top 10 seasons before but Tim was 40th last year and Chris hasn't been top 10 since he finished 3rd in 2018.  James Benham made his first top 10 last year.

Jason Schultz ended the season 20 points behind our champion but in only his second season of organized play.  Will Kennington, Justin Swaine,  and Brent Fitz also made their first appearances in the top 10 this year.

But lets dig into how Stephen beat out Don this year.  Below is a break-out of how each of them got points this year -- their top 5 race results and their top 2 tournament results.  And some general data as well.

That general data tells an interesting story.  Stephen beat Don despite Don winning more races (and even a higher percentage of races) and more tournaments.  But you can also see the first clue here of how Stephen overcame that -- tougher competition.  By design a field rating of 1 should be average (the median race field rating was 0.97 this year).  So we can see that Stephen's average race was considered above average in difficulty of competition while Don's was -- on average -- considered below average.

This doesn't mean that Don was racing against shlubs.  What it really means is that most of Don's wins came against smaller groups of opponents and/or not the very best of competition  Below are the top 11 races, ranked by field rating this year.  

As you can see, Stephen won 4 of those races.  Don won 2.  Stephen also had a second place in one of these races.  In fact, those are the five results that add into Stephen's score for the year.  Because the points you get for results in a race are multiplied by the field rating of that race, you can see how Stephen ended up with more points than Don.

To find Don's other wins, we scroll down that list a little.

Don's 3rd best win was against decent competition but not the very best.  A bit further down the table, Don's 4th and 5th (... and 6th) wins were against smaller fields.  Anything less than 8 people is considered a smaller field and will tend to have smaller field ratings.

That last bit is based on my most recent adjustment to the scoring (see this post for some detail on that change).  And yes, this change was made mid-season as I saw more than the usual number of smaller fields seem to really skew results.  I acknowledge that this might be controversial.  But I will have more to say about that in a future post.

For now, lets congratulate Stephen on his #1 ranking and Don for another outstanding season.

The Regulars

Don Tatum participated in what I am going to assume is a record 35 races this season (and season high 6 different tournaments).  That comes out to 40% of the number of races Don could possibly have participated in (and almost 40% of the tournaments).  Will Kennard participated in 28 races and Kevin Keller in 25.

Rookie of the Year

Rookies did not show prominently in the rankings this season.  But Chris Manning gets the nod by ranking 68th in his first season, powered by a 2nd place finish in one of the the two races he participated in.  Andrew Koerber was  close runner up at 70th.

Most Improved

Doug Galullo had a down year in 2021.  Having been ranked as high as 2nd in 2018, he fell to 97th last year.  But bounced back this year to 17th.  Much more his usual territory.  Honorable mention to Jason Schultz Who won 6 races this year and jumped from 73rd ranked last season to 3rd this season.

Steward of the Year

This is probably my favorite award.  Stewards make CFR happen.  Especially organized play.  I try to find new people to highlight every year but in a first... (I think) a repeat for Brian DeWitt.  Brian not only has people nominate him every year... he ran a very impressive 12 races this year.  Often as double-headers.

Other Numbers

This season saw a record number of races in organized play at 87 -- 4 more than 2020.  And a larger increase in the number of racing opportunities at 53 -- up from 45 in 2019.  Many tournaments are set up such that you can't race in every race because there are effectively or literally multiple races going on at the same time, the number of racing opportunities is always a bit lower than the total number of races.  The total number of drivers participating in organized play was up from last year to 122 from 104.  But 122 is still down from the 219 high of 151.  Field size shrunk this year from 9.4 to 8.3.  Field size has generally been shrinking over the last 10 years or so.  Although it had held pretty stead around 9.5 drivers per race from 2017 through last year.

Monday, June 20, 2022

2022 Organized Play Update and a Ranking Tweak

We are well into the 2022 CFR Organized Play season and I've updated the rankings.  Finally.  Thank you for your patience.

Note that these rankings do not account for the 2nd races from my series.  Updates from those races will occur when all results are in.

A note on the aforementioned ranking tweak.  I noticed as I was entering race results that we had a larger then usual number of low player-count races -- 4, 5, 6.  These results seemed to be skewing the rankings so I made a tweak to how I adjust race scores based on the field.  I used to simply use the average ELO of the top 10 drivers in the race.  This was designed specifically to not penalize people for smaller races.

Now, I'm taking the top 8 driver ELOs and dividing by 8.  So if there are fewer than 8 drivers in the race, it will not be worth as many points.  I am happy with this fix but there is another big consequence.  This spread out the value of wins a lot more than in previous seasons.  Most wins were pretty close in value, maybe with a difference of 2-5 points.  Now there is enough spread that there is some overlap in the total points for "bad" wins and "good" 2nd places.

I'm doing the same thing with tournament points now as well.  For tournaments I used to be looking at the average of the top 20 drivers.  Now I'm taking the top 8 divided by 8.  I haven't yet seen any 4 driver tournaments but this does mean that the top heavy tournaments will be worth more.  Which I think makes sense since only the top 3 drivers can get tournament points.  So the 18th best driver in that series is not too important.

Back to this year's rankings.  One result of the bigger point spread for wins is that there is still plenty of opportunity for the top drivers to improve their scores as the season closes out.  A high quality win could be worth 10 points or more to any of the top drivers and the top 4 drivers are all currently within 8 points.

So I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the top series in my PBeM.  Stephen P, Chris L, Don T, Michael P, and James B are all in that series and a race win there is a big win.  Stephen and James are also neck and neck for the series win.  That should set everything up nicely for the last tournament of the season at WBC 2022.

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

WBC 2022... It's On!


Indianapolis corner 1 at the end of a 4-wide straight.
Two years ago WBC steward Chris picked tracks for the WBC CFR tournament.  Now you all will finally get to race those tracks at WBC 2022.

Instead of repeating myself... here's the list of tracks.

Good luck all.